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We propose and examine a theory of how the context of the political climate and incumbency interact to affect candidate strategies and their impact on candidate evaluations and the vote in presidential elections. From this theory,...
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We propose and examine a theory of how the context of the political climate and incumbency interact to affect candidate strategies and their impact on candidate evaluations and the vote in presidential elections. From this theory, we generate four hypotheses. Two concern the difference between elections in which the incumbent runs as opposed to open seat races with a successor in-party candidate. The other two hypotheses concern the difference in evaluations of incumbents and successor candidates in open seat elections. The results indicate that open seat elections are less reflective of the political climate than incumbent elections, that incumbents experience higher highs and lower lows than successor candidates, that evaluations of successor candidates tend to be more muted representations of evaluations of incumbents, and that the vote in open seat races depends more heavily on how voters judge the successor candidate rather than the incumbent leaving office. The contextual campaign made a substantial difference in 2008, allowing John McCain to distance himself from the unpopular President Bush and to do significantly better in evaluations and at the polls than the incumbent would have.
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The U.S. election of 2004 affords an opportunity to investigate how wartime affects presidential voting. The conventional wisdom is that wartime presidents always get reelected, but previous studies have not examined how citizens'...
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The U.S. election of 2004 affords an opportunity to investigate how wartime affects presidential voting. The conventional wisdom is that wartime presidents always get reelected, but previous studies have not examined how citizens' attitudes on the war affect their voting. The papers in this special issue investigate this process, looking at how attitudes on the Iraq War, the larger War on Terrorism, and the so-called cultural war affected attitudes toward the presidential candidates and voting. The studies use a wide variety of datasets and survey questions, showing that the different aspects of the war resonate with different voters and that some of the effects of wartime are indirect through increasing the salience of leadership in the election. Wartime presidents do not get reelected automatically; they have had success in reelection because of how they use the war to build an image that can get them reelected.
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Every presidential election offers interesting questions for analysis, but some elections are more puzzling than others. The election of 2004 involves two linked and countervailing puzzles. The first is: How did President George W...
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Every presidential election offers interesting questions for analysis, but some elections are more puzzling than others. The election of 2004 involves two linked and countervailing puzzles. The first is: How did President George W. Bush manage to win at all, avoiding the fates of George H.W. Bush and Jimmy Carter? The other is: Why didn’t he win by a more substantial margin than in his first election, as all reelected presidents since Eisenhower were able to do? On the one hand, in the wake of September 11, the president had approval ratings around 90% and the threat of terrorism remained a substantial concern through Election Day. This would seem to afford Bush an overwhelming advantage. On the other hand, the public’s views of the state of the economy and of the course of the war in Iraq were negative. We think that the juxtaposition of these questions will help to explain the outcome of the election and of the pattern of the results. Moreover, by unpacking our explanation of the vote into three policy-related issue components—economic retrospective evaluations, domestic policy views, and foreign policy views—we examine the way these preferences contributed to the electorate’s voting decisions.
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Donald Trumps victory in the 2016 presidential election caused widespread shock, in large part because political polls seemed to predict an easy victory for Hillary Clinton. New York magazine was so confident of a Clinton victory ...
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Donald Trumps victory in the 2016 presidential election caused widespread shock, in large part because political polls seemed to predict an easy victory for Hillary Clinton. New York magazine was so confident of a Clinton victory that, the week of the election, its cover featured the word "loser" stamped across Donald Trumps face.
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The United States contains some of the world's most dangerous roads,accounting for about 4% of the total global road deaths and 4% of the total global population. This pattern differs from other industrial countries such as Austra...
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The United States contains some of the world's most dangerous roads,accounting for about 4% of the total global road deaths and 4% of the total global population. This pattern differs from other industrial countries such as Australia (0.16% of road deaths, 0.32% of global population), Canada (0.27% of road deaths, 0.46% of global population), and Germany (0.65% of road deaths, 1.21% of global population). The shortfall in U.
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The war in Iraq, so the widely accepted view, hurt the reelection of George W. Bush. We contend, to the contrary, that the war helped him get reelected. First, we show that his victory fits the dominant pattern of wartime election...
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The war in Iraq, so the widely accepted view, hurt the reelection of George W. Bush. We contend, to the contrary, that the war helped him get reelected. First, we show that his victory fits the dominant pattern of wartime elections in American history. Second, we find that Bush’s approval ratings benefited from a complex rally where the Iraq war prolonged rather than diminished the 9/11 effect; most Americans affirmed rather than disputed a link between the war in Iraq and the war on terror. Third, while Bush’s approval proves sensitive to U.S. casualties in the Iraq war, any damage to his standing prior to the election was mitigated by sufficient popular support for that war. And finally, on Election Day, Bush was able to garner the vote of two critical blocks with favorable feelings about the Iraq war, be it the decision to invade or the prospect of success.
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This work shows how Internet data can be aggregated to track political candidates? performance during a presidential campaign. The ?wisdom of crowds? theory is here exploited to a fuller extent using a unique combination of data s...
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This work shows how Internet data can be aggregated to track political candidates? performance during a presidential campaign. The ?wisdom of crowds? theory is here exploited to a fuller extent using a unique combination of data sources and methodology. This is first done by taking medium-level aggregations from applications such as BetFair, InTrade, PredictIt, Twitter, Facebook, MySpace, YouTube, Instagram, Google, FiveThirtyEight, and then by synthesizing via factor analysis a qualitative measure of popularity for both candidates, while controlling for the intensity of electoral discussions. For two different elections, the methodology extracts popularity functions that closely reflect popularity swings occurring during/shortly after the presidential debates and other campaign-related events. The model presents itself as a cheaper and more accurate alternative to electoral polling being based on aggregate, anonymous data and voter?s actions; for the same reason, it has the potential to address the ?Shy Trump Supporters? bias. The model outperforms political betting markets and established platforms such as RealClearPolitics, FiveThirtyEight and Twitter, in addition to the factor model?s original variables.
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The answers to questions that the IEEE Computer Societys senior volunteer leaders posed to the IEEE''s president-elect candidates are provided to help the Societys members make their decisions when voting in the IEEEs annual...
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The answers to questions that the IEEE Computer Societys senior volunteer leaders posed to the IEEE''s president-elect candidates are provided to help the Societys members make their decisions when voting in the IEEEs annual election of officers.
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The literature makes clear that foreign policy affects voting, but it does not lead to clear expectations as to how a war will affect voting. Will views about the advisability of the war predominate? Or will the indirect effect th...
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The literature makes clear that foreign policy affects voting, but it does not lead to clear expectations as to how a war will affect voting. Will views about the advisability of the war predominate? Or will the indirect effect through the incumbent’s image be more important? Will a war crowd out other potential issues, particularly domestic ones? This paper addresses these questions through a series of focused analyses of NES survey data. We find that an increase in strong Republican partisans clinched the election for President Bush. The Iraq War was not a direct vote gainer for the President, but the larger War on Terrorism burnished his image as a leader, at least long enough to win the election. Likewise, the cultural war allowed President Bush to retain some of the votes that he might otherwise have lost due to the unpopularity of the Iraq War.
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In the modern times, the populace in most African countries are left wondering whether the declared election winner actually got the most votes. The validity of the declared election results in most cases remain questionable. In o...
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In the modern times, the populace in most African countries are left wondering whether the declared election winner actually got the most votes. The validity of the declared election results in most cases remain questionable. In order to determine the validity of the declared results, an empirical statistical methodology could be used to give some hint and or evidence of anomalies in the declared election count data. This paper therefore considers a statistical method based on the pattern of digits in vote counts known as 2 digit Benfords Law (2BL) that is useful for detecting fraud or other anomalies. The 2BL methodology and other extensions are applied to detect the possible anomalies and fraud in the 2017 Kenyan presidential elections results data. The analysis show that the data for the top two presidential candidates: Uhuru Kenyatta and Raila Odinga do not follow the 2BL distribution. The digits are signi cantly di erent at 5% signi cance level when tested using the chi-square and the Euclidean tests. The mean absolute deviation (M.A.D) also con rms the non-conformity of the data to the 2BL distributions test. Further tests namely,the second order test, the summation test and the duplication test are utilized in order to detected any possible anomalies and fraud that could be present. All the three additional tests con rm the presence of fraud and anomalies in the data. These are red ags on the credibility of the presidential election results data published by the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC).
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